# Decision Framework Workflow
# Structured multi-lens decision analysis

workflow:
  id: wf-decision-framework
  name: "Framework de Decisao"
  trigger: "*decision-framework"
  entry_agent: board-chair
  estimated_duration: "45-90 minutes"
  description: |
    Aplicar um framework estruturado de decisao combinando modelos mentais (Munger),
    principios (Dalio), pensamento contrario (Thiel) e raciocinio por primeiros
    principios (Naval) para chegar a uma decisao de alta qualidade.

  type: sequential
  sequence:
    - agent: board-chair
      action: frame-decision
      creates: decision_context
    - agent: charlie-munger
      action: mental-models
      creates: model_analysis
    - agent: ray-dalio
      action: principles
      creates: principles_analysis
    - agent: peter-thiel
      action: contrarian
      creates: contrarian_view
    - agent: board-chair
      action: synthesize
      creates: final_decision

phases:
  - id: phase_1_problem
    name: "Problem Definition"
    agent: board-chair
    task: convene-board.md
    depends_on: []
    description: "Define the problem clearly, identify decision type, and map constraints"
    checkpoint:
      gate: "Problem stated precisely with decision criteria and constraints defined"
      veto: "HALT if the problem is actually multiple problems — decompose first"
    outputs:
      - problem_statement
      - decision_criteria
      - constraints_map

  - id: phase_2_mental_models
    name: "Mental Models Analysis"
    agent: charlie-munger
    task: seek-investment-counsel.md
    depends_on: [phase_1_problem]
    description: "Apply Munger's latticework of mental models to the problem"
    checkpoint:
      gate: "At least 3 mental models applied with inversion completed"
      veto: "HALT if analysis shows clear cognitive bias driving the decision"
    models_to_apply:
      - "Inversion — What would make this fail?"
      - "Circle of Competence — Do we actually understand this domain?"
      - "Second-Order Thinking — What happens after the first effect?"
      - "Margin of Safety — What buffer exists if assumptions are wrong?"
      - "Opportunity Cost — What are we giving up by choosing this?"
    outputs:
      - mental_models_analysis
      - inversion_results
      - bias_identification

  - id: phase_3_principles
    name: "Principles-Based Analysis"
    agent: ray-dalio
    task: seek-investment-counsel.md
    depends_on: [phase_1_problem]
    description: "Apply Dalio's principles framework — radical transparency and believability"
    checkpoint:
      gate: "Expected value calculated, stress test completed"
      veto: "HALT if key assumptions cannot be validated"
    principles_to_apply:
      - "Radical Transparency — What are the uncomfortable truths?"
      - "Believability-Weighted Decision — Whose opinion matters most here?"
      - "Pain + Reflection = Progress — What does past experience teach?"
      - "Expected Value — Probability-weighted outcomes"
      - "Stress Testing — What if assumptions are 50% wrong?"
    outputs:
      - principles_analysis
      - expected_value
      - stress_test_results

  - id: phase_4_contrarian
    name: "Contrarian Check"
    agent: peter-thiel
    task: seek-investment-counsel.md
    depends_on: [phase_2_mental_models, phase_3_principles]
    description: "Challenge conventional wisdom and test for definite optimism"
    checkpoint:
      gate: "Contrarian perspective delivered, consensus challenged"
      veto: "HALT if everyone agrees and no one has challenged the premise"
    questions:
      - "What important truth do very few people agree with you on?"
      - "Is this a 0-to-1 decision or a 1-to-n decision?"
      - "Are we being definite optimists (specific plan) or indefinite (just hoping)?"
      - "What is the strongest case AGAINST the emerging consensus?"
      - "Is there a secret here — something we know that others do not?"
    outputs:
      - contrarian_analysis
      - consensus_challenge
      - definite_plan_assessment

  - id: phase_5_recommendation
    name: "Final Recommendation"
    agent: board-chair
    task: convene-board.md
    depends_on: [phase_4_contrarian]
    support_agents: [naval-ravikant]
    description: "Synthesize all analyses into a final recommendation"
    checkpoint:
      gate: "Recommendation is clear, well-reasoned, and accounts for contrarian view"
      veto: "HALT if recommendation cannot survive the contrarian check"
    naval_overlay:
      - "Which choice creates the most leverage?"
      - "Which compounds best over decades?"
      - "Which aligns with specific knowledge?"
    outputs:
      - final_recommendation
      - decision_rationale
      - risk_mitigation
      - monitoring_plan

completion_criteria:
  - "Problem defined precisely with criteria and constraints"
  - "At least 3 mental models applied (Munger)"
  - "Principles-based analysis completed with expected value (Dalio)"
  - "Contrarian check challenged the emerging consensus (Thiel)"
  - "Leverage and compounding assessed (Naval)"
  - "Final recommendation survives all analytical lenses"
  - "Risk mitigation and monitoring plan defined"