{
  "skill_name": "hypothesis-comparison",
  "evals": [
    {
      "id": 1,
      "prompt": "Acme's monthly churn on the Starter plan went from 2.1% in July to 3.4% in August. Theories: the price rise from $19 to $24 on 1 Aug, a new competitor (Northwind Lite) launching in late July, or the onboarding email sequence that broke on 20 Jul. Evidence: churn rose on monthly and annual-renewal customers alike; cancellation survey 'too expensive' share went from 30% to 32%; customers who signed up after 20 Jul churn at 5.8%, older cohorts at 2.4%; win-back calls mention Northwind Lite twice out of 40. Which explanation fits best and what should we check next?",
      "assertions": [
        "Lists at least four rival hypotheses, including a measurement or definition hypothesis the user did not raise",
        "Builds a matrix rating every evidence item against every hypothesis as consistent, inconsistent or neutral (or CC/II/NA)",
        "Ranks hypotheses by how much evidence contradicts them, not by how much supports them, and shows the scores or arithmetic",
        "Names the non-diagnostic evidence (rated the same for every hypothesis) and does not use it as support",
        "Names the linchpin evidence whose removal would change the leader, or states that none exists",
        "Gives the conclusion a confidence word with a reason",
        "Names one next observation that the top two hypotheses predict differently, with the result each predicts",
        "Does not invent evidence, numbers or sources that are not in the prompt; anything inferred is tagged [assumption]"
      ]
    }
  ]
}