# decide-scoring.sh — Value scoring for the decision engine # Source from sw-decide.sh. Requires helpers.sh. [[ -n "${_DECIDE_SCORING_LOADED:-}" ]] && return 0 _DECIDE_SCORING_LOADED=1 # ─── State ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── WEIGHTS_FILE="${HOME}/.shipwright/decisions/weights.json" # Default weights _W_IMPACT=30 _W_URGENCY=25 _W_EFFORT=20 _W_CONFIDENCE=15 _W_RISK=10 # ─── Weight Management ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────── scoring_load_weights() { if [[ -f "$WEIGHTS_FILE" ]]; then _W_IMPACT=$(jq -r '.impact // 30' "$WEIGHTS_FILE" 2>/dev/null || echo "30") _W_URGENCY=$(jq -r '.urgency // 25' "$WEIGHTS_FILE" 2>/dev/null || echo "25") _W_EFFORT=$(jq -r '.effort // 20' "$WEIGHTS_FILE" 2>/dev/null || echo "20") _W_CONFIDENCE=$(jq -r '.confidence // 15' "$WEIGHTS_FILE" 2>/dev/null || echo "15") _W_RISK=$(jq -r '.risk // 10' "$WEIGHTS_FILE" 2>/dev/null || echo "10") fi # Also try loading from tiers config if [[ -n "${TIERS_FILE:-}" && -f "${TIERS_FILE:-}" ]]; then local cfg_impact cfg_impact=$(jq -r '.scoring_weights.impact // empty' "$TIERS_FILE" 2>/dev/null || true) if [[ -n "$cfg_impact" ]]; then _W_IMPACT=$(echo "$cfg_impact" | awk '{printf "%.0f", $1 * 100}') _W_URGENCY=$(jq -r '.scoring_weights.urgency' "$TIERS_FILE" | awk '{printf "%.0f", $1 * 100}') _W_EFFORT=$(jq -r '.scoring_weights.effort' "$TIERS_FILE" | awk '{printf "%.0f", $1 * 100}') _W_CONFIDENCE=$(jq -r '.scoring_weights.confidence' "$TIERS_FILE" | awk '{printf "%.0f", $1 * 100}') _W_RISK=$(jq -r '.scoring_weights.risk' "$TIERS_FILE" | awk '{printf "%.0f", $1 * 100}') fi fi } scoring_save_weights() { mkdir -p "$(dirname "$WEIGHTS_FILE")" local tmp tmp=$(mktemp) jq -n \ --argjson i "$_W_IMPACT" \ --argjson u "$_W_URGENCY" \ --argjson e "$_W_EFFORT" \ --argjson c "$_W_CONFIDENCE" \ --argjson r "$_W_RISK" \ --arg ts "$(now_iso)" \ '{impact:$i, urgency:$u, effort:$e, confidence:$c, risk:$r, updated_at:$ts}' \ > "$tmp" && mv "$tmp" "$WEIGHTS_FILE" } # ─── Dimension Scorers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────── # Each returns 0-100 _score_impact() { local candidate="$1" local signal category risk_score signal=$(echo "$candidate" | jq -r '.signal // "unknown"') category=$(echo "$candidate" | jq -r '.category // "unknown"') risk_score=$(echo "$candidate" | jq -r '.risk_score // 50') case "$signal" in security) local severity severity=$(echo "$candidate" | jq -r '.evidence.severity // "medium"') case "$severity" in critical) echo 90 ;; high) echo 70 ;; medium) echo 50 ;; *) echo 30 ;; esac ;; deps) local diff diff=$(echo "$candidate" | jq -r '.evidence.major_versions_behind // 1') if [[ "${diff:-1}" -ge 3 ]]; then echo 70 elif [[ "${diff:-1}" -ge 2 ]]; then echo 55 else echo 35; fi ;; coverage) echo 45 ;; docs) echo 30 ;; dead_code) echo 25 ;; performance) local pct pct=$(echo "$candidate" | jq -r '.evidence.regression_pct // 0') if [[ "${pct:-0}" -ge 50 ]]; then echo 75 elif [[ "${pct:-0}" -ge 30 ]]; then echo 60 else echo 40; fi ;; failures) echo 55 ;; dora) echo 60 ;; architecture) echo 50 ;; intelligence) echo 45 ;; *) echo 40 ;; esac } _score_urgency() { local candidate="$1" local signal signal=$(echo "$candidate" | jq -r '.signal // "unknown"') case "$signal" in security) local severity severity=$(echo "$candidate" | jq -r '.evidence.severity // "medium"') case "$severity" in critical) echo 95 ;; high) echo 75 ;; *) echo 45 ;; esac ;; performance) echo 60 ;; dora) echo 55 ;; failures) echo 65 ;; deps) echo 35 ;; coverage) echo 30 ;; docs) echo 20 ;; dead_code) echo 15 ;; *) echo 40 ;; esac } _score_effort() { # Inverted: easy = high score, hard = low score local candidate="$1" local category category=$(echo "$candidate" | jq -r '.category // "unknown"') case "$category" in deps_patch) echo 90 ;; deps_minor) echo 75 ;; doc_sync) echo 85 ;; dead_code) echo 70 ;; test_coverage) echo 60 ;; security_patch) echo 65 ;; deps_major) echo 40 ;; security_critical) echo 45 ;; performance_regression) echo 35 ;; recurring_failure) echo 30 ;; refactor_hotspot) echo 25 ;; architecture_drift) echo 20 ;; dora_regression) echo 30 ;; *) echo 50 ;; esac } _score_confidence() { local candidate="$1" local raw_conf raw_conf=$(echo "$candidate" | jq -r '.confidence // "0.80"') # Convert 0.0-1.0 to 0-100 echo "$raw_conf" | awk '{printf "%.0f", $1 * 100}' } _score_risk() { local candidate="$1" local risk_score risk_score=$(echo "$candidate" | jq -r '.risk_score // 50') echo "$risk_score" } # ─── Main Scorer ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── score_candidate() { local candidate="$1" local impact urgency effort confidence risk impact=$(_score_impact "$candidate") urgency=$(_score_urgency "$candidate") effort=$(_score_effort "$candidate") confidence=$(_score_confidence "$candidate") risk=$(_score_risk "$candidate") # Formula: value = (impact * w1) + (urgency * w2) + (effort * w3) + (confidence * w4) - (risk * w5) # All weights are integers summing to 100, scores are 0-100 local value value=$(( (impact * _W_IMPACT + urgency * _W_URGENCY + effort * _W_EFFORT + confidence * _W_CONFIDENCE - risk * _W_RISK) / 100 )) # Clamp to 0-100 [[ "$value" -lt 0 ]] && value=0 [[ "$value" -gt 100 ]] && value=100 echo "$candidate" | jq \ --argjson vs "$value" \ --argjson imp "$impact" \ --argjson urg "$urgency" \ --argjson eff "$effort" \ --argjson conf "$confidence" \ --argjson rsk "$risk" \ '. + {value_score: $vs, scores: {impact: $imp, urgency: $urg, effort: $eff, confidence: $conf, risk: $rsk}}' } # ─── Outcome Learning ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────── # EMA (exponential moving average) weight adjustment based on decision outcomes scoring_update_weights() { local outcome="$1" local result result=$(echo "$outcome" | jq -r '.result // "unknown"') local alpha=20 # EMA factor (out of 100): 20% new, 80% old # Adjust weights based on which dimension was most predictive # Success: boost the dominant scoring dimension; Failure: dampen it local signal signal=$(echo "$outcome" | jq -r '.signal // "unknown"') case "$result" in success) case "$signal" in security) _W_URGENCY=$(( (_W_URGENCY * (100 - alpha) + 30 * alpha) / 100 )) ;; deps) _W_EFFORT=$(( (_W_EFFORT * (100 - alpha) + 25 * alpha) / 100 )) ;; performance) _W_IMPACT=$(( (_W_IMPACT * (100 - alpha) + 35 * alpha) / 100 )) ;; failures) _W_URGENCY=$(( (_W_URGENCY * (100 - alpha) + 30 * alpha) / 100 )) ;; *) ;; # No adjustment for generic signals esac ;; failure) # On failure, slightly increase risk weight _W_RISK=$(( (_W_RISK * (100 - alpha) + 15 * alpha) / 100 )) ;; esac # Normalize weights to sum to 100 local total=$(( _W_IMPACT + _W_URGENCY + _W_EFFORT + _W_CONFIDENCE + _W_RISK )) if [[ "$total" -gt 0 && "$total" -ne 100 ]]; then _W_IMPACT=$(( _W_IMPACT * 100 / total )) _W_URGENCY=$(( _W_URGENCY * 100 / total )) _W_EFFORT=$(( _W_EFFORT * 100 / total )) _W_CONFIDENCE=$(( _W_CONFIDENCE * 100 / total )) _W_RISK=$((100 - _W_IMPACT - _W_URGENCY - _W_EFFORT - _W_CONFIDENCE)) fi scoring_save_weights }