/**
 * Expected-cost tier selection — SP-106, #68; virtual cost v2 — SP-149, #78.
 *
 * E[cost_T] = P(success | T) × directCost(T)
 *           + (1 - P(success | T)) × E[cost_escalation]
 *
 * directCost uses SP-148 virtual cost v2 (λ decay, quota premiums, KV credit).
 * Selects the tier minimizing adjusted expected cost subject to context-fit,
 * local readiness, and pin/cache economics (FR-008).
 */
import type { ModelProfile, PriceCatalog, SessionPin, Tier } from '../types/index.js';
import type { QuotaWindowPosition } from '../types/entities.js';
import type { VirtualCostV2Config } from '../types/schemas.js';
import { type CacheEconomicsConfig } from '../pinning/cache-economics.js';
/** Frontier-tier success probability when evaluating escalation terminal cost. */
export declare const FRONTIER_P_SUCCESS = 1;
/** Minimum per-1M-token spread required before economical tiers compete. */
export declare const MIN_PRICE_DELTA_PER_1M = 0.25;
/**
 * Maximum soft heat-affinity discount (SP-215, #115). Caps the expected-cost
 * discount a workload heat map may apply so serve-time affinity can never
 * dominate hard gates (price delta, pin cache economics, capability
 * shortfall) — matches the Colibri-style ~25% hysteresis band.
 */
export declare const MAX_HEAT_BIAS_STRENGTH = 0.25;
/**
 * Soft first-turn / cold-start heat affinity (SP-215, #115). Discounts the
 * adjusted expected cost of `tier` by `strength` (fraction, clamped to
 * [0, MAX_HEAT_BIAS_STRENGTH]). Applied AFTER expected-cost computation and
 * BEFORE the price-delta and pin-economics gates, so it can only ever soften
 * — never override — hard routing gates.
 */
export interface ExpectedCostHeatBias {
    readonly tier: Tier;
    readonly strength: number;
}
/** V2 virtual-cost breakdown attached to expected-cost explain (SP-149). */
export interface ExpectedCostVirtualCostV2 {
    readonly baseCostUsd: number;
    readonly quotaDecayLambda: number;
    readonly quotaArbitragePremium: number;
    readonly exhaustionRiskPremium: number;
    readonly kvCacheSavings: number;
    readonly effectiveCostUsd: number;
    readonly effectiveCostPer1M: number;
}
export interface ExpectedCostBreakdown {
    readonly tier: Tier;
    readonly pSuccess: number;
    readonly costPer1M: number;
    readonly directCostUsd: number;
    readonly escalationCostUsd: number;
    readonly expectedCostUsd: number;
    readonly adjustedExpectedCostUsd: number;
    readonly virtualCostV2: ExpectedCostVirtualCostV2 | null;
    /** True when the SP-215 soft heat bias discounted this tier's cost. */
    readonly heatBiasApplied?: boolean;
}
export interface SelectTierByExpectedCostInput {
    readonly fleet: readonly ModelProfile[];
    readonly priceCatalog: PriceCatalog | null;
    readonly estTokens: number;
    readonly pSuccessCheap: number;
    /** Cost-quality tradeoff in [0, 1]; higher favors economical tiers (SP-106). */
    readonly alpha: number;
    readonly localZeroReady: boolean;
    readonly pinnedModel?: ModelProfile;
    readonly sessionPin?: SessionPin;
    readonly cacheEconomicsConfig?: CacheEconomicsConfig;
    /** Rolling subscription quota position for v2 λ and premiums (SP-149). */
    readonly quotaWindowPosition?: QuotaWindowPosition;
    readonly virtualCostV2Config?: VirtualCostV2Config;
    /** Soft heat affinity for first-turn / cold-start bias (SP-215, #115). */
    readonly heatBias?: ExpectedCostHeatBias;
}
export interface SelectTierByExpectedCostResult {
    readonly tierHint: Tier | null;
    readonly reasonCode: string;
    readonly tierCosts: readonly ExpectedCostBreakdown[];
    readonly rationale: string;
    readonly blockedByPinEconomics: boolean;
    /** True when the SP-215 soft heat bias changed the winning tier. */
    readonly heatBiasApplied?: boolean;
}
/**
 * Resolve representative per-1M cost for a tier using subscription-aware pricing (SP-096).
 */
export declare function resolveTierCostPer1M(tier: Tier, fleet: readonly ModelProfile[], priceCatalog: PriceCatalog | null): number;
export interface ResolveTierVirtualCostInput {
    readonly tier: Tier;
    readonly fleet: readonly ModelProfile[];
    readonly priceCatalog: PriceCatalog | null;
    readonly estTokens: number;
    readonly quotaWindowPosition?: QuotaWindowPosition;
    readonly virtualCostV2Config?: VirtualCostV2Config;
    readonly sessionPin?: SessionPin;
    readonly pinnedModel?: ModelProfile;
}
/**
 * Resolve SP-148 virtual cost v2 for a tier representative model (SP-149).
 */
export declare function resolveTierVirtualCost(input: ResolveTierVirtualCostInput): {
    readonly costPer1M: number;
    readonly directCostUsd: number;
    readonly virtualCostV2: ExpectedCostVirtualCostV2;
};
/**
 * Format v2 cost breakdown for operator explain output (SP-149).
 */
export declare function formatVirtualCostV2Explain(virtualCostV2: ExpectedCostVirtualCostV2 | null): string;
/**
 * Compute per-tier expected routing cost under uncertainty.
 *
 * Tier direct cost uses SP-148 virtual cost v2 when resolved via fleet/catalog.
 */
export declare function computeExpectedCost(tier: Tier, pSuccess: number, priceCatalog: PriceCatalog | null, estTokens: number, escalationCostUsd: number, options?: {
    readonly alpha?: number;
    readonly costPer1M?: number;
    readonly directCostUsd?: number;
    readonly fleet?: readonly ModelProfile[];
    readonly virtualCostV2?: ExpectedCostVirtualCostV2 | null;
    readonly quotaWindowPosition?: QuotaWindowPosition;
    readonly virtualCostV2Config?: VirtualCostV2Config;
    readonly sessionPin?: SessionPin;
    readonly pinnedModel?: ModelProfile;
    readonly heatBias?: ExpectedCostHeatBias;
}): ExpectedCostBreakdown;
/**
 * Compare expected cost across context-fit-viable tiers and return argmin tier hint.
 */
export declare function selectTierByExpectedCost(input: SelectTierByExpectedCostInput): SelectTierByExpectedCostResult;
//# sourceMappingURL=expected-cost.d.ts.map