/**
 * BREAKTHROUGH RADAR (SURPRISE) — the result the model never saw coming. Optimization quietly assumes the
 * response is well-behaved, so it can miss the most important thing that can happen in a real lab: a setting
 * that performs FAR better (or worse) than everything around it predicts. A surprising high is a possible
 * breakthrough — a sweet spot, a synergy, a regime nobody expected — and it deserves to be chased, not
 * averaged away. A surprising low is a warning — a likely measurement error, or a hidden penalty worth
 * re-checking before you trust it.
 *
 * SURPRISE predicts each measurement from all the OTHERS (a leave-one-out stand-in for your process) and
 * flags the ones whose actual result departs far more than the typical prediction error. It separates them
 * by direction: a big positive surprise is tagged a potential breakthrough to verify and explore around; a
 * big negative one is tagged an anomaly to re-check.
 *
 * Honest by construction (DIAKRISIS): a surprise is a residual outlier against your own data's smooth trend
 * — strong EVIDENCE that a point is special, not proof it's a breakthrough (it could still be a lucky
 * misread; that's exactly why the advice is "verify it"). Distinct from the noise lens (near-neighbour
 * disagreement / meter reliability); this is departure from the global trend. Abstains on thin data.
 */
import { type Space } from "./space.js";
import { type Observation, type Goal } from "./engine.js";
export interface SurpriseItem {
    at: Record<string, number>;
    value: number;
    expected: number;
    sigma: number;
    direction: "high" | "low";
}
export interface SurpriseReport {
    surprises: SurpriseItem[];
    breakthrough: SurpriseItem | null;
    note: string;
}
/** Flag measurements that depart far more than usual from what the rest of the data predicts. */
export declare function analyzeSurprise(obs: ReadonlyArray<Observation>, space: Space, goal?: Goal): SurpriseReport;
export declare function surpriseGauntlet(): {
    score: 0 | 100;
    checks: Array<{
        name: string;
        pass: boolean;
        detail: string;
    }>;
};
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