export declare const VALIDATE_DECIDE = "# /validate-decide \u2014 Validation Verdict Engine\n\n## What This Does\n\nEnd-of-window validation verdict. Aggregates all daily check data into a comprehensive signal analysis and produces a clear decision with automatic pipeline routing.\n\n## Trigger Context\n- Validation window end date reached (from /validate-prep)\n- User triggers manually\n- Kill signal from /validate-check (early termination)\n\n## Execution Protocol\n\n### Step 1: Aggregate All Data\n\nPull from pipeline-state.json:\n- All daily check entries for current validation tier\n- Decision thresholds from /validate-prep\n- Unit economics guardrails\n- Current tier number\n\nCalculate aggregate metrics:\n```\nVALIDATION SUMMARY \u2014 Tier [N] \u2014 [Market Name]\nWindow: [start date] to [end date] ([X] days)\n\nAGGREGATE METRICS:\n  Total Spend: $[sum]\n  Total Impressions: [sum]\n  Total Clicks: [sum]\n  Overall CTR: [calculated]%\n  Total Signups/Leads: [sum]\n  Cost Per Lead: $[calculated]\n  Total Sales: [sum]\n  CPA: $[calculated]\n  ROAS: [calculated]x (if revenue data exists)\n\nTREND:\n  CPA trajectory: [improving / stable / degrading]\n  CTR trajectory: [improving / stable / degrading]\n  Best performing day: [date] \u2014 [why]\n  Worst performing day: [date] \u2014 [why]\n\nCREATIVE PERFORMANCE:\n  Ad 1: [metrics] \u2014 [winner / loser / inconclusive]\n  Ad 2: [metrics] \u2014 [winner / loser / inconclusive]\n```\n\n### Step 2: Compare Against Tier-Specific Criteria\n\n**Tier 1 (Signal Validation) \u2014 Did anyone care?**\n```\nADVANCE criteria (ALL must be met):\n  \u2610 Email signups achieved: [actual] vs [minimum threshold]\n  \u2610 Cost per signup: $[actual] vs $[maximum acceptable]\n  \u2610 Landing page engagement: [scroll depth / time on page if available]\n  \u2610 At least one ad variation showed viable CTR (above kill threshold)\n\nITERATE criteria (some signal, not enough):\n  \u2610 Some signups but below threshold\n  \u2610 CTR viable on at least one ad but conversion weak\n  \u2610 Engagement signals present but action signals absent\n\nKILL criteria (no signal):\n  \u2610 Zero or near-zero signups after full budget spent\n  \u2610 All ads below CTR kill threshold\n  \u2610 No engagement signals whatsoever\n```\n\n**Tier 2 (Micro-Validation) \u2014 Will anyone pay?**\n```\nADVANCE criteria:\n  \u2610 Sales achieved: [actual] vs [minimum \u2014 typically 3-5 at this tier]\n  \u2610 CPA: $[actual] vs $[target from unit economics]\n  \u2610 Refund rate: [actual] vs [<20% threshold]\n  \u2610 Module 1 completion: [actual] vs [>50% threshold]\n\nITERATE criteria:\n  \u2610 Some sales but CPA above target\n  \u2610 Sales but high refund rate\n  \u2610 Leads converting but volume insufficient\n\nKILL criteria:\n  \u2610 Zero sales after full validation spend\n  \u2610 CPA > 2x break-even with no improving trend\n  \u2610 High refund rate indicating fundamental mismatch\n```\n\n**Tier 3 (Real Validation) \u2014 Is this a business?**\n```\nADVANCE criteria (\u2192 scaling mode):\n  \u2610 CPA stable at or below target for 7+ days\n  \u2610 ROAS above break-even consistently\n  \u2610 Refund rate <10%\n  \u2610 Product completion rate >60%\n  \u2610 At least 2 winning creative variations validated\n  \u2610 Unit economics sustainable at current scale\n\nITERATE criteria:\n  \u2610 Profitable but inconsistent\n  \u2610 One channel working, others not\n  \u2610 Creative fatigue setting in\n\nKILL criteria:\n  \u2610 Unable to achieve target CPA after full optimization cycle\n  \u2610 Product-market fit signals absent (high refunds, no completion, no testimonials)\n```\n\n### Step 3: Produce Verdict\n\n**ADVANCE:**\n```\nVERDICT: \u2705 ADVANCE TO TIER [N+1]\n\nEvidence:\n  [2-3 bullet points citing specific metrics that met thresholds]\n\nWhat happens next:\n  - Pipeline auto-advances to Tier [N+1]\n  - /validate-prep will generate Tier [N+1] deployment package\n  - Winning ad variation(s) carry forward: [which ones]\n  - Budget increases to: $[tier N+1 budget]\n\nLearnings captured:\n  - Winning hook angle: [which Building Block led]\n  - Best performing audience: [from ad set data]\n  - Landing page conversion rate: [X]% [above/below benchmark]\n```\n\n**Revenue Phase Gate Check (if revenue_phase is set):**\n\nWhen issuing an ADVANCE verdict and the pipeline has revenue_phase set, also update revenue milestones:\n\n- Tier 1 advance with signups: Set revenue_phase_gates.signal.status to \"achieved\" and signal_achieved_at to today\n- Tier 2 advance with sales: Set revenue_phase to \"cash\", record first_sale_at, calculate days_to_first_sale\n- Tier 3 advance with sustained sales (3+): Set revenue_phase to \"repeat\", record third_sale_at\n\nRevenue phase transitions execute automatically as part of the advance.\n\nIf advancing from Tier 3 \u2192 scaling mode:\n```\nVERDICT: \u2705 VALIDATED \u2014 ENTER SCALING MODE\n\nThis market has passed all three validation tiers.\nPipeline transitions to continuous optimization:\n  \u2192 /creative-test for ongoing creative testing\n  \u2192 /scale for budget scaling\n  \u2192 /traffic-analytics for periodic reviews\n  \u2192 /daily-check continues as monitoring tool\n```\n\n**ITERATE:**\n```\nVERDICT: \uD83D\uDD04 ITERATE \u2014 [specific issue identified]\n\nEvidence:\n  [what the data shows]\n\nRoot cause diagnosis:\n  [specific component that underperformed \u2014 not vague]\n\nRouting:\n  [exact SOP to re-run and what to change]\n  - If creative problem \u2192 /creative-test with [specific angle to test]\n  - If landing page problem \u2192 /funnel-optimize targeting [specific section]\n  - If offer problem \u2192 /feedback routing to Building Blocks revision\n  - If targeting problem \u2192 /channels with adjusted audience parameters\n\nRe-validation plan:\n  After fixes, re-run Tier [N] with:\n  - Budget: $[same as before]\n  - Duration: [X] days\n  - Changed variables: [list exactly what's different]\n  - /validate-prep will auto-generate new deployment package\n```\n\n**KILL:**\n```\nVERDICT: \u274C KILL \u2014 [reason]\n\n\u26A0\uFE0F This is a Tier 4 decision. Presenting analysis for your decision.\n\nEvidence:\n  [what the data conclusively shows]\n\nWhy this isn't an iteration problem:\n  [distinguish between fixable tactical issues vs fundamental misalignment]\n\nTotal investment in this pipeline:\n  Time: [approximate hours across all SOPs]\n  Money: $[total ad spend across all tiers]\n\nLearnings to capture (\u2192 /lessons):\n  - [What worked that transfers to future pipelines]\n  - [What the market taught you about buyer behavior]\n  - [What you'd do differently with hindsight]\n\nOptions:\n  A. Archive this pipeline. Start /scout with a new market.\n  B. Pivot to adjacent market: [suggest based on what the data revealed]\n  C. Fundamental repositioning: return to /research with new angle on same market.\n\nYour call. Which option?\n```\n\n### Step 4: Execute Pipeline Transition\n\nBased on verdict:\n- **ADVANCE:** Update pipeline-state.json to next tier. Auto-trigger /validate-prep for next tier.\n- **ITERATE:** Update pipeline-state.json with iteration entry. Present the specific SOP to re-run.\n- **KILL:** Wait for user confirmation (Tier 4). On confirmation, archive pipeline to `pipelines/archive/`, auto-trigger `/lessons` to capture learnings.\n\n### Step 5: Update State\n\n```json\n{\n  \"validation_tier_[N]\": {\n    \"status\": \"[advanced/iterating/killed]\",\n    \"completed_at\": \"[timestamp]\",\n    \"verdict\": \"[advance/iterate/kill]\",\n    \"evidence_summary\": \"[brief]\",\n    \"signals\": {\n      \"total_spend\": [X],\n      \"total_conversions\": [X],\n      \"final_cpa\": [X],\n      \"winning_creative\": \"[which]\",\n      \"winning_audience\": \"[which]\"\n    },\n    \"routing\": \"[next SOP or archive]\"\n  }\n}\n```\n\n## Autonomy\nTier 2 \u2014 Notify & Proceed for ADVANCE verdict.\nTier 3 \u2014 Recommend & Wait for ITERATE verdict (user approves iteration plan).\nTier 4 \u2014 Escalate for KILL verdict (user must confirm).\n\n## Output\nValidation Verdict Report saved to `assets/[market-name]/validation/tier-[N]-verdict.md`\nPipeline state updated. Next step auto-initiated or presented for approval.\n\n## Next Step\nADVANCE \u2192 `/validate-prep` (next tier) or scaling mode\nITERATE \u2192 Routed SOP (e.g., `/creative-test`, `/funnel-optimize`, `/feedback`)\nKILL \u2192 `/lessons` then `/scout` (new market)";
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