/**
 * A single prediction made by an agent.
 */
export interface Prediction {
    /** Unique prediction ID */
    id: string;
    /** What the agent predicted */
    prediction: string;
    /** Confidence level (0-1) */
    confidence: number;
    /** When the prediction was made (ISO date string) */
    madeAt: string;
    /** Optional deadline by which the prediction should be resolved (ISO date string) */
    resolveBy?: string;
    /** Actual outcome (set when resolved) */
    outcome?: string;
    /** Whether the prediction was accurate (set when resolved) */
    accurate?: boolean;
    /** When the prediction was resolved (ISO date string) */
    resolvedAt?: string;
}
/**
 * Persisted predictions data structure.
 */
export interface PredictionsData {
    /** All predictions (resolved and unresolved) */
    predictions: Prediction[];
    /** Overall calibration score (0-1, higher = better calibrated) */
    calibrationScore: number;
}
/**
 * Service for tracking agent prediction accuracy and calibration.
 *
 * Agents make predictions with confidence levels, then resolve them
 * with actual outcomes. The calibration score measures how well
 * an agent's confidence maps to actual accuracy.
 *
 * Storage: ~/.crewly/agents/{sessionName}/predictions.json
 */
export declare class PredictionCalibrationService {
    /**
     * Get the file path for an agent's predictions.
     *
     * @param sessionName - Agent session name
     * @returns Absolute path to predictions.json
     */
    private getFilePath;
    /**
     * Read predictions data from disk.
     *
     * @param sessionName - Agent session name
     * @returns Predictions data, or empty default if file doesn't exist
     */
    getPredictions(sessionName: string): Promise<PredictionsData>;
    /**
     * Record a new prediction.
     *
     * @param sessionName - Agent session name
     * @param prediction - What is being predicted
     * @param confidence - Confidence level (0-1)
     * @param resolveBy - Optional ISO date by which the prediction should be resolved
     * @returns The created prediction
     */
    makePrediction(sessionName: string, prediction: string, confidence: number, resolveBy?: string): Promise<Prediction>;
    /**
     * Resolve a prediction with its actual outcome.
     *
     * @param sessionName - Agent session name
     * @param id - Prediction ID to resolve
     * @param outcome - What actually happened
     * @param accurate - Whether the prediction was accurate
     * @returns The resolved prediction, or null if not found
     */
    resolvePrediction(sessionName: string, id: string, outcome: string, accurate: boolean): Promise<Prediction | null>;
    /**
     * Get the agent's current calibration score.
     *
     * @param sessionName - Agent session name
     * @returns Calibration score (0-1), or 0 if no resolved predictions
     */
    getCalibrationScore(sessionName: string): Promise<number>;
    /**
     * Calculate calibration score from resolved predictions.
     *
     * Uses a simplified Brier-like score: for each resolved prediction,
     * compares confidence to actual accuracy. Perfect calibration = 1.0.
     *
     * @param predictions - All predictions
     * @returns Calibration score (0-1)
     */
    private calculateCalibrationScore;
    /**
     * Persist predictions data to disk.
     *
     * @param sessionName - Agent session name
     * @param data - Predictions data to save
     */
    private save;
}
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