""" starter_6_market_making.py — Market-making bot with spread bands. Quotes both sides of the book at configurable distances (in cents) from the mid. Re-quotes when: - the mid moves outside a tolerance band - inventory drifts past the per-token cap - too much time has passed since last refresh Targets the Polymarket maker-rewards program. Reward eligibility tightened in 2025/2026 — orders must be near best bid/ask, in size, and persistent. Read https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/maker-rewards before going live. ⚠️ February 2026 nonce-cancellation attack: market makers running multiple strategies on one EOA had quotes stuffed by a tiny, attacker-controlled nonce. Mitigations: - Use one EOA per strategy (separate wallets) - Watch your own pending tx pool; if a low-value cancel from your address hits the chain that you didn't sign, kill switch immediately. - Cap per-market exposure aggressively at first. Customize: TARGET_MARKETS, SPREAD_BPS, INVENTORY_CAP, ORDER_SIZE. Run: python main.py Defaults to DRY_RUN=true. """ from __future__ import annotations import asyncio import os import signal import time from dataclasses import dataclass from dotenv import load_dotenv from common import ( JsonlLogger, OrderIntent, RiskLayer, cancel_all, close_http, fetch_market_by_slug, get_market_book, healthcheck, make_client, parse_token_ids, place_gtc, ) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Config — list of slugs to make markets on # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- TARGET_SLUGS = [s.strip() for s in os.getenv("TARGET_SLUGS", "").split(",") if s.strip()] # Spread to quote each side, in cents. 0.01 = 1 cent. Tighter = higher fill # rate but worse adverse selection. SPREAD_CENTS = float(os.getenv("SPREAD_CENTS", "0.01")) # Reference: when mid moves by more than this, re-quote. REQUOTE_THRESHOLD_CENTS = float(os.getenv("REQUOTE_THRESHOLD_CENTS", "0.005")) # Order size in shares per side. ORDER_SIZE = float(os.getenv("ORDER_SIZE", "20")) # Max net position (shares) per market. Stop quoting the heavier side at cap. INVENTORY_CAP = float(os.getenv("INVENTORY_CAP", "500")) # Refresh quotes every N seconds even if mid stable. REFRESH_INTERVAL_SEC = float(os.getenv("REFRESH_INTERVAL_SEC", "30")) # Skip markets where the spread is already wider than this (probably stale or illiquid) MAX_NATURAL_SPREAD = float(os.getenv("MAX_NATURAL_SPREAD", "0.05")) DRY_RUN = os.getenv("DRY_RUN", "true").lower() != "false" @dataclass class MarketState: slug: str yes_token: str no_token: str last_mid_yes: float = 0.0 last_quote_ts: float = 0.0 inventory_yes: float = 0.0 # shares of YES token held open_orders: dict = None # {"buy": order_id, "sell": order_id} def __post_init__(self): if self.open_orders is None: self.open_orders = {"buy": None, "sell": None} def round_price(p: float) -> float: """Polymarket tick size is 1 cent. Snap to grid.""" return round(min(max(p, 0.01), 0.99), 2) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Per-market quote loop # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- async def update_quotes(client, state: MarketState, risk: RiskLayer, log: JsonlLogger): book = await asyncio.to_thread(get_market_book, client, state.yes_token) bids = book.get("bids") or [] asks = book.get("asks") or [] if not bids or not asks: return best_bid = float(bids[0]["price"]) best_ask = float(asks[0]["price"]) natural_spread = best_ask - best_bid if natural_spread > MAX_NATURAL_SPREAD: log.log("mm_skip", slug=state.slug, reason="wide_spread", spread=natural_spread) return mid = (best_bid + best_ask) / 2 if ( abs(mid - state.last_mid_yes) < REQUOTE_THRESHOLD_CENTS and time.time() - state.last_quote_ts < REFRESH_INTERVAL_SEC ): return # nothing to do bid_px = round_price(mid - SPREAD_CENTS) ask_px = round_price(mid + SPREAD_CENTS) if bid_px >= ask_px: log.log("mm_skip", slug=state.slug, reason="crossed", bid=bid_px, ask=ask_px) return # Inventory management: skew or pause one side at cap. quote_buy = state.inventory_yes < INVENTORY_CAP quote_sell = state.inventory_yes > -INVENTORY_CAP print(f"[{state.slug}] mid={mid:.4f} → quote bid={bid_px:.4f} ask={ask_px:.4f} inv={state.inventory_yes:+.0f}") log.log("mm_requote", slug=state.slug, mid=mid, bid=bid_px, ask=ask_px, inventory=state.inventory_yes) if DRY_RUN: state.last_mid_yes = mid state.last_quote_ts = time.time() return # Cancel old quotes for this token before placing new ones. try: cancel_all(client, [state.yes_token]) except Exception as e: log.log("mm_cancel_error", slug=state.slug, error=str(e)) if quote_buy: intent = OrderIntent( token_id=state.yes_token, side="BUY", size=ORDER_SIZE, price=bid_px, strategy_id="mm_v1", market_slug=state.slug, ) if risk.allow(intent): try: r = place_gtc(client, state.yes_token, "BUY", ORDER_SIZE, bid_px) state.open_orders["buy"] = r.order_id log.log("mm_buy_placed", slug=state.slug, **r.__dict__) except Exception as e: log.log("mm_buy_error", slug=state.slug, error=str(e)) if quote_sell: intent = OrderIntent( token_id=state.yes_token, side="SELL", size=ORDER_SIZE, price=ask_px, strategy_id="mm_v1", market_slug=state.slug, ) if risk.allow(intent): try: r = place_gtc(client, state.yes_token, "SELL", ORDER_SIZE, ask_px) state.open_orders["sell"] = r.order_id log.log("mm_sell_placed", slug=state.slug, **r.__dict__) except Exception as e: log.log("mm_sell_error", slug=state.slug, error=str(e)) state.last_mid_yes = mid state.last_quote_ts = time.time() async def main(): load_dotenv() log = JsonlLogger("logs/mm_v1") print("=" * 60) print("Polymarket Market Maker") print("=" * 60) print(f"Mode: {'DRY-RUN' if DRY_RUN else '🔴 LIVE'}") print(f"Markets: {len(TARGET_SLUGS)}") print(f"Spread: ±{SPREAD_CENTS:.3f}") print(f"Order size: {ORDER_SIZE}") print(f"Inv cap: ±{INVENTORY_CAP}") print("=" * 60) if not TARGET_SLUGS: print("⚠️ Set TARGET_SLUGS in .env (comma-separated market slugs)") return client = make_client() healthcheck(client) risk = RiskLayer.from_env(strategy_id="mm_v1") states: list[MarketState] = [] for slug in TARGET_SLUGS: m = await fetch_market_by_slug(slug) if not m: print(f" ⚠️ market not found: {slug}") continue try: yes_id, no_id = parse_token_ids(m) except Exception as e: print(f" ⚠️ parse error for {slug}: {e}") continue states.append(MarketState(slug=slug, yes_token=yes_id, no_token=no_id)) print(f" ✓ {slug}") stop = asyncio.Event() for sig in (signal.SIGINT, signal.SIGTERM): try: asyncio.get_running_loop().add_signal_handler(sig, stop.set) except NotImplementedError: signal.signal(sig, lambda *_: stop.set()) while not stop.is_set(): for s in states: try: await update_quotes(client, s, risk, log) except Exception as e: log.log("mm_error", slug=s.slug, error=str(e)) print(f"⚠️ {s.slug}: {e}") try: await asyncio.wait_for(stop.wait(), timeout=2.0) except asyncio.TimeoutError: pass print("Cancelling all open quotes...") try: cancel_all(client) except Exception as e: print(f"cancel_all error: {e}") await close_http() print("Done.") if __name__ == "__main__": asyncio.run(main())