# Country Economic Analysis Workflow

## When to Use
- "Economic outlook for [country]"
- "Analyze [country] economy"
- Country comparison or regional analysis
- Economic calendar or data releases
- Institutional, multilateral, or **academic / research** audiences (prioritize analytical depth and policy recommendations)

## Workflow Steps

### Step 1: Search Core Economic Indicators
Use `bigdata_search` with targeted queries for each key indicator:

```
bigdata_search("[Country] GDP growth economic outlook 2026")
bigdata_search("[Country] inflation CPI consumer prices trends")
bigdata_search("[Country] central bank interest rates monetary policy")
bigdata_search("[Country] unemployment rate labor market")
bigdata_search("[Country] fiscal policy government budget")
```

### Step 2: Search Monetary Policy
Use `bigdata_search`:
- "[Country] central bank rate decision outlook"
- "[Country] monetary policy inflation target"
- "Fed/ECB/BOJ/PBOC policy rate path expectations"

### Step 3: Search Economic Calendar & Events
Use `bigdata_search`:
- "[Country] economic data releases calendar"
- "[Country] central bank meeting schedule"
- "[Country] GDP CPI employment report dates"

### Step 4: Search Structural & Historical Context (required for analytical depth)
Use `bigdata_search` to support **structural and historical analysis** — do not produce a shallow, point-in-time-only report:
- "[Country] sector transformation structural change agriculture industry services"
- "[Country] labor productivity by sector comparison"
- "[Country] economic structure evolution [time range e.g. 1990 2020]"
- "[Country] sectoral GDP share history"
- "[Country] employment by sector productivity growth"

### Step 5: Search Debt Composition, Tax-to-GDP & PFM (required for depth)
Use `bigdata_search` for **debt mechanics, tax burden, and public financial management**:
- "[Country] public debt composition domestic external"
- "[Country] debt servicing interest cost weighted average rate"
- "[Country] debt crowding out private sector"
- "[Country] public financial management PFM reform budget execution"
- "[Country] tax revenue GDP fiscal consolidation"
- "[Country] tax to GDP ratio tax burden comparison"
- "[Country] tax-to-GDP revenue mobilization OECD IMF"

### Step 6: Search Labor Market in Depth (avoid "macro good, micro bad" without elaboration)
Use `bigdata_search` to substantiate labor narrative:
- "[Country] labor market informality underemployment"
- "[Country] youth unemployment sectoral employment"
- "[Country] real wages productivity labor share"
- "[Country] employment growth by sector"

### Step 7: Search Policy & Reform Context (for recommendations section)
Use `bigdata_search` to ground **policy recommendations**:
- "[Country] fiscal consolidation tax reform recommendations"
- "[Country] debt management strategy IMF World Bank"
- "[Country] structural reform priorities"
- "[Country] demographic dividend youth bulge policy"

### Step 8: Search Market Implications & FDI
Use `bigdata_search`:
- "[Country] equity market outlook"
- "[Country] bond market yields spreads"
- "[Country] currency forex outlook"
- "[Country] foreign investment flows"
- "[Country] FDI foreign direct investment inflows outflows"
- "[Country] FDI trajectory outlook 2026 greenfield M&A"
- "[Country] foreign direct investment by sector trend"

### Step 9: Search Regional Context (if applicable)
Use `bigdata_search`:
- "G7 economic comparison GDP inflation rates"
- "[Country] vs peers economic performance"
- "developed markets emerging markets outlook"

## Output Template

```markdown
# Country Economic Analysis: [Country]
Report Date: [Date]

## Executive Summary
[3-4 sentence overview]

## Economic Snapshot

### Key Indicators
| Indicator | Current | Previous | Trend | Context |
|-----------|---------|----------|-------|---------|
| GDP Growth (YoY) | X.X% | X.X% | ↑/↓/→ | [vs peers] |
| Inflation (CPI YoY) | X.X% | X.X% | ↑/↓/→ | [vs target] |
| Unemployment | X.X% | X.X% | ↑/↓/→ | [context] |
| Policy Rate | X.X% | X.X% | [last action] | [outlook] |
| Tax to GDP | X.X% | X.X% | ↑/↓/→ | [vs peers / target] |

### Economic Health Assessment
| Dimension | Rating | Commentary |
|-----------|--------|------------|
| Growth Momentum | Strong/Moderate/Weak | [Brief] |
| Inflation | Contained/Elevated/Concerning | [Brief] |
| Labor Market | Tight/Balanced/Slack | [Brief] |
| Fiscal Position | Solid/Manageable/Stretched | [Brief] |

### Structural & Historical Context (include for analytical depth)
- **Sector transformation**: [e.g. agriculture → industry/services over 2–3 decades; cite time range and key shifts]
- **Labor productivity by sector**: [comparison across sectors, e.g. agriculture vs industry vs services; cite levels or growth rates where available]
- **Structural narrative**: [2–4 sentences on how the economy has evolved and what it implies for outlook]

### Debt & Fiscal Mechanics (include for depth)
- **Tax to GDP ratio**: [level and trend; comparison to peers or IMF/OECD benchmarks; revenue mobilization targets if cited]
- **Debt composition**: [domestic vs external share; maturity/currency mix if available]
- **Debt servicing**: [interest burden, weighted average rate if available; crowding-out or rollover risk]
- **PFM / budget**: [key PFM reforms, budget execution, revenue performance; tax-to-GDP or targets if cited]

### Labor Market (substantive; avoid one-line "macro good, micro bad")
- **Macro**: [aggregate unemployment/employment, participation]
- **Micro / structural**: [informality, underemployment, youth unemployment, sectoral gaps, real wages vs productivity]
- **Summary**: [1–2 sentences tying macro and micro to outlook]

## Monetary Policy Outlook

### Current Stance
- **Rate**: X.X%
- **Last Action**: [Hike/Cut/Hold] on [Date]
- **Guidance**: [Summary]

### Rate Path Expectations
| Timeframe | Expected | Commentary |
|-----------|----------|------------|
| Next meeting | | |
| Year-end | | |

## Key Economic Events to Watch
| Date | Event | Why It Matters |
|------|-------|----------------|

## Market Implications

### Equity
- **YTD**: +/-X.X%
- **Valuation**: Premium/Fair/Discount
- **Opportunities**: [Sectors]

### Fixed Income
- **10Y Yield**: X.X%
- **Curve**: Steep/Flat/Inverted
- **View**: Extend/Neutral/Shorten

### Currency
- **vs USD**: [Level]
- **YTD**: +/-X.X%
- **Outlook**: Bullish/Neutral/Bearish

### FDI Trajectory
- **Recent trend**: [inflows/outflows, YoY or latest data; greenfield vs M&A if available]
- **By sector or source**: [key sectors or origin countries if relevant]
- **Outlook**: [catalyst or headwind; policy or competitiveness driver]

## Investment Thesis
**Bull Case**: [Points]
**Bear Case**: [Points]
**Positioning**: [Recommendation]

## Key Risks
1. [Risk]: [Description and triggers]

## Policy Recommendations (dedicated section — required)
Provide a **dedicated policy recommendations section**, not just scattered mentions. Structure by pillar and cite specific targets or mechanisms where available.

### Fiscal consolidation
- [Concrete measures: revenue vs expenditure; tax-to-GDP or revenue targets if cited (e.g. 16–18%); base broadening, spending prioritization]

### Debt management
- [Strategy for domestic vs external; maturity/refinancing; cost reduction or reprofiling; any stated targets]

### Monetary policy
- [Stance consistency with inflation target; communication; financial stability considerations]

### Structural reforms
- [Sector-specific (e.g. agriculture, industry); PFM/budget execution; business environment; demographic dividend or youth/labor policies if relevant]

*Cite sources (e.g. IMF, World Bank, national authorities) for each recommendation where applicable.*

## Sources
| # | Source | Date | URL |
|---|--------|------|-----|

---
**Powered by Bigdata.com** - https://bigdata.com
```

## Audience Suitability & Quality Bar
- **Academic / Research**: Reports should include **structural and historical context** (sector transformation over time, labor productivity comparisons), **detailed debt and PFM mechanics**, a **substantive labor market** section (macro and micro), and a **dedicated policy recommendations section** with multi-pronged, sourced recommendations and specific targets where available. Avoid shallow, point-in-time-only narrative.
- **Development finance / multilateral**: Same depth as above; emphasize policy recommendations and PFM/governance.
- **Investor / trading**: Retain data recency, consensus forecasts, and investment thesis; add the above depth where it does not conflict with brevity.