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all right hello everyone I've got a lot of content to get through
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so I'm gonna move fast Buckle in if you are looking for a startup idea right now
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I'm going to try to help but more importantly I'm going to try to give you the conceptual tools to think about
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startup ideas in a sophisticated way the way that we think about them at YC here's the thing uh no one not even YC
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knows for sure which ideas will succeed and in any case if your idea succeeds
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has much to do with how well you execute as your initial idea anyway but certain ideas are much more likely to succeed
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than others and so my goal here is to help you stack the deck in your favor by starting with a promising idea the
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advice in this talk came from several places first I analyzed the top 100 YC
Where does this advice come from?
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companies by evaluation and I looked at how they all got their idea so I started with some hard quantitative data on how
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recent billion dollar companies actually came up with their idea it also draws on a classic essay by Paul Graham that I
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really recommend it's called how to get startup ideas um it also comes from helping YC companies that pivot in the middle of
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the batch and learning over the years what advice helps them to find a new good startup idea
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and then finally it comes from Reading thousands of YC applications that we rejected and looking at the mistakes
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that caused good Founders to come up with bad ideas and those are the mistakes I want to help you all avoid
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this Talk's got three parts first I'm going to tell you the most common mistakes Founders make with startup
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ideas then I'm going to talk about how to know if your idea is good and then about how to come up with new ones okay the four
4 most common mistakes
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most common mistakes with startup ideas so the most common mistake is just building something that doesn't solve a
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real problem for your users typically you can articulate the problem that you're
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solving you can put it in words but when you actually go and talk to the users it's just not something that they really
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care about we call it a solution in search of a problem or a cisp
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let's go through an example so a lot of Founders come up with an idea with this kind of thought process they go hmm AI
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is cool what could I apply AI to and then they go look for a problem that
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they could solve with AI That's a solution in search of a problem and the reason it's dangerous is that if you do
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that you'll probably find a problem but it will it will be a superficially plausible problem it'll be a made-up
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problem that people don't really care about rather than a real problem that people actually care about
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and if people don't really care about the problem they won't really care about your solution so instead you want to
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fall in love with a problem the best way to find a startup idea is to start with a high quality problem now
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Sunrise Founders hear this and they decide to interpret that as guidance to work on some like huge societal problem
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like I don't know Global poverty or something um no doubt those are real problems but
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they're they're too abstract to make good starting points for startup ideas you need something that's more specific something that's tractable with a
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startup the next mistake is getting stuck on what we call tar pit ideas what's a tar pit idea so there's this
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certain set of common startup ideas that have been around for forever they have been applying inroves to YC batch after
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batch for years and when founders start working on these ideas it's like they've gotten stuck in tar they never seem to
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go anywhere so we call them tar pit ideas here's what causes tarpet ideas they all form around some like
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widespread problem that lots of potential Founders encounter and it's a problem it seems like it could be easily
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solved with a startup but it's an illusion there's actually a structural reason why it's very hard or impossible
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to solve which is why after all these years no one has solved it and you can see why ideas like this
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would be so dangerous why they will cause so many Founders to waste months of their life stuck on a tarpet like
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they're very tantalizing from a distance because they're so superficially plausible as startup ideas here's a
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concrete example this is a very common tarpet idea that's been applied to YC for like 20 years this is like the
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stereotypical college student idea and it goes like this you think
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man every Friday or Saturday Saturday night when I'm making plans to meet up with my friends it's so inefficient I'm
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in all these different text threads and chat groups and we're like trying to make plans to meet up I'm just going to
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make an app to make it more efficient Well turns out that there are some structural reasons why this idea is hard
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which is why in like 20 years of people applying to YC with this idea nobody has actually pulled it off you can see why
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so many people have been attracted to it it's like it's a problem that almost everyone encounters at some point and it
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seems like it would be so easy to solve like you can just imagine the app it's just got like a list of events and you invite friends to it like it seems so
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simple the thing about tarpet ideas is that they are not necessarily impossible like I'm even open-minded that somebody
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will eventually make the like app to meet up with your friends idea of work is more accurate to think of them as
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common ideas that are much harder than they seem so if you want to work on one
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um here's my advice first Google it it's amazing how many Founders skip the step
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of just like Googling for their own startup idea to see who has worked on it in the past you should find who's worked
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on this in the past and actually talk to them if you can try to figure out what the hard part of this idea is that has
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caused other people to not be able to solve it yet the next mistake is simple it is amazing how many Founders will
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basically just like jump into the first idea they have without even stopping to consider whether it would actually make
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a good business but more dangerous is the founders on the opposite side of the spectrum who
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sit around waiting for the perfect startup idea and of course there is no such thing so these people just never
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actually start a company so if you imagine that there's like a spectrum between picking the first idea that comes to mind and waiting for the
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perfect idea and you know somewhere in the middle there is this like happy place which is the place that you want
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to be right and the way that Paul Graham put this is that you should think of your idea as a good starting point
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new startup idea is perfect and no matter what you start with it's probably going to morph anyway so you just want
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to have an initial idea that has enough interesting qualities that can morph in the right direction so now suppose you
10 key questions to ask about any startup idea
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have a startup idea and you want to know if it's good I'm going to give you a framework for this and the format of the
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framework is 10 key questions to ask about any startup idea so the first one is do you have founder market fit if I
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depict like one most important criteria it'd probably be this one and what I mean by founder market fit is just are
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you the right team to be working on this idea and a great example of what good founder
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market fit looks like is plan grid so plan grid makes an iPad app to view
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construction Blueprints and to the founders of plan grid were Tracy and Ralph and Tracy had worked in the
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construction industry and she knew a lot about construction and Ralph was an awesome developer who was like the
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perfect person to build this iPad out if you're going to imagine a team to start playing grid the team that you would
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imagine would look you know something like that and that's what good founder market fit looks like it's like this team is obviously the right team to work
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on the idea in fact founder market fit is so important that I would recast your search for a
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startup idea when most people go to pick a startup idea they try to look for a
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good startup idea like in the abstract and instead I would think about this exercise as an exercise to pick a good
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idea for your team you with me it doesn't matter if something is a good startup idea for someone else if it's
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not a good idea for your team so you may as well just look for ideas that you would actually be good at executing okay
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number two how big is the market obviously you need a big Market which for startups typically means like a
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billion dollar market but actually less obviously there are two kinds of markets for startups that are good
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um ones that are big now and ones that are small but rapidly growing and an example of the second one is
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coinbase so when coinbase got started in 2012 the Bitcoin trading Market was minuscule but even at that time it was
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pretty obvious that if Bitcoin succeeded the way people hoped that it would that this would eventually be a billion
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dollar market number three how acute is this problem so as I said earlier the most common
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mistake is just like working on something that just isn't really a problem or it's just not a problem that
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people care enough about um here's an example of the opposite here's an example of what a good problem
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looks like Rex so Brax from Winter 2017 makes a credit
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card for startups and before brex if a startup NYC wanted a corporate credit card they literally
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could not get one because a no bank would give a credit card to a startup that's a good problem like if you're if
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the alternative to your solution is literally nothing that's what a good problem looks like okay next do you have
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competition now most Founders think that if you have competition that that's bad but
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counter-intuitively it is the opposite most good startup ideas have competition
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but if you were going up against especially entrenched competition you typically need a new insight next one is
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like do you want this personally do you know people personally who want
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this it's amazing how often people start companies where the answer to both these
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questions is no if that's the case you definitely got to worry that you know maybe nobody wants this so definitely
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time to go talk to some users only recently become possible or only
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recently become necessary so something has recently changed in the world like a new technology regulatory
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change or a new problem that is often what creates a new opportunity
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and a great example of this is company called Checker which does background checks via VIA an API so it's an API for
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doing background checks on people and roughly the story of Checker is delivery
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services like doordash and instacart and Uber started to take off and they were all hiring huge pools of
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delivery people and workers and they needed to run background checks on all of these people and there were at the
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time already a bunch of large existing companies that run background checks but they weren't well suited for this very
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new use case and that is like exactly the kind of change in the world that
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creates a new opportunity let's talk about proxies so a proxy is a large company that does
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something similar to your startup but it is not a direct competitor and so um
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a good example of this in practice is a company called rapid which does food delivery in Latin America and when
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rapping got started there were already a few delivery companies in other parts of the world like doordash they're doing very well they just hadn't caught on in
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Latin America yet and so doordash was a great proxy to show that this idea of doing food delivery in Latin America
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would probably work is this an idea you'd want to work on for years but this
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is a tricky one like sure if the answer to this question is yes that's a good sign but often it's not often an idea
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grows on Founders over time as it starts to work as I'm going to talk about in a
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moment a lot of the best startup ideas are in boring spaces like tax accounting software or something like that like no
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one is particularly passionate about like nobody starts off being passionate about tax accounting software
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um but tax accounting software is probably a good business and if you're actually running a successful business
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you tend to become passionate about it over time okay is this a scalable business
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so if you're building pure software the answer is yes because software skills infinitely and you can just like check
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this one off um the place for Founders most often get into trouble here is with Services
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businesses like agencies or Dev shops anything that requires like high skill human labor in order to serve your
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customers okay and my last question is is this a good idea space which of
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course means I need to tell you what an idea space is this is a concept from my colleague Dalton who you'll hear from
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later in this course an idea space is like one level of abstraction out from a particular
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startup idea it is a class of closely related startup ideas like software for hospitals or
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infrastructure monitoring tools or food delivery services and here's the thing
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different idea spaces have wildly different hit rates over the last 10 years if you started a
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company that did like fintech infrastructure or vertical SAS for Enterprise the the probability that your
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company became a billion dollar company was astonishingly High whereas if you started something in
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consumer Hardware or social networks or ad Tech the success rate was like orders
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of magnitude loader and I can't say that that will continue to be the case for those specific areas because spaces
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flipped from hot to cold over time but it is still worth thinking about picking
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a good idea space and a good idea Space is really just one that like you expect is going to have a
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reasonable hit rate for new startup ideas and one that has founder market fit that way even if your initial idea isn't
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quite right there are probably good adjacent ideas that you can sort of like drift into
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I'm going to give a good example of like how this played out in practice so a good example of picking a good idea space is this company called 5tran from
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yc1213 and basically it's already 5tran is they started making this tool for
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data analysis and they went to some companies and they tried to sell it and the companies
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didn't want it so they pivoted and they built a different tool for data analysis and they went back to the same companies
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and they tried to sell them that one and the companies didn't want that either but each time they went to companies and
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tried to sell them some tool for data analysis they would learn more about what those companies actually wanted and So eventually they sort of stumbled into
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an actual problem into an actual tool for data analysis that companies actually wanted
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and this is why picking a good idea space to start with is so important like because
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the five Tran Founders were shopping for ideas and a fertile idea space they put themselves in a good position to like
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bump into a good startup idea if they had picked a bad idea space they probably wouldn't have found anything
3 things that make your startup idea good
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okay before I talk about how to generate startup ideas I've got one important
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topic to tell you about these are three things that make your startup idea seem bad
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but actually make them good and the reason that they make them good is that most Founders will shy away from ideas
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like these which leaves them on the table for smarter Founders to go and grab them and here they are
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ideas that are hard to get started ideas that are in a boring space and ideas
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that have existing competitors ideas that are hard to get started so Paul Graham wrote a terrific article
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about this called schlep blindness which I'd really recommend reading and the example that Paul discusses is stripe
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you all know stripe they make it easy to integrate credit card payments to your website and the fascinating thing about stripe
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is that when stripe launched there were thousands of developers who already knew
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that this was a problem they had tried to integrate credit card payments to their site and they realized that the existing options sucked
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but strangely not one of them even tried to start striping and it's kind of a
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kind of a fascinating question why nobody else tried when so many people were in a perfect position to see this
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problem and the reason is that getting
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started building stripe required some things that seemed really hard you had to get a special deal with a bank you
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get to learn a lot about the nitty-gritty details of credit card infrastructure those things seemed so
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hard that they scared off all the other people who might have started stripe which caused them to leave this like 100
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billion dollar opportunity on the table for the stripe Founders to go and pick up okay the second one is ideas that are
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in a boring space and a great example of this is Gusto which makes payroll software
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payroll software pretty boring right the thing is there are thousands of people who must have realized that
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payroll software sucked but because it was kind of a boring problem nobody tried to fix it until the Gusto Founders
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came along and the thing is that because most Founders shy away from ideas like this
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boring ideas like payroll software have a much higher hit rate than fun ideas
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like apps to find new restaurants to eat at or like apps to find the next song to
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listen to something like that like fun ideas get picked over boring ideas get left on the table for a long time
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now you might be thinking Jared why would I want to work on a boring idea that sounds you know boring
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but here's the thing even if you work on an idea that sounds fun at the outset
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the day-to-day reality of your startup is going to be mostly the same anyway
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either way you'll be mostly writing code fixing bugs talking to users like pretty
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much the same stuff and so I would argue that once the initial excitement of your
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idea has worn off and you are 6 or 12 months in and you are grinding out the
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execution that makes your idea actually work how fun the initial idea sounded
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actually has little to no correlation with how much fun you will actually be having working on your company
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and the last one is that Founders incorrectly shy away from spaces where there are existing competitors
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counter-intuitively most startup ideas most good startup ideas have existing competitors when founders go into spaces
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with no existing competitors they often find out that the reason that there are no competitors is because no one wants
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the product a great situation is actually a market where there are existing competitors but
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you've noticed something that they all seem to have missed or they all just kind of suck a classic example of this
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is Dropbox so when Dropbox launched they were already about 20.
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cloud-based file storage companies Dropbox was like the 20th company and it's space to launch naively you might
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have thought that that made this a bad Market I mean you would have gone and looked and said like oh there are already 20 competitors it seems like a
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bad Market to go into but if you were Savvy about startup ideas you would have realized that it actually made it a
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great Market and the reason is that even though there were like 20 companies doing this most people didn't use any of
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them and that strongly suggests that there actually was a problem here but the existing products hadn't solved it
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and Drew the founder of Dropbox had a very specific insight about what all of
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them were missing his Insight was basically their UI sucked and the reason their UI stopped was that at the time
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the way that they all worked is you had to like go to their website and manually upload your files one at a time into
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their website which sucked of course and Drew had really a technical Insight which was that if he integrated directly
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into the host operating system he could just sync your files automatically without you having to do anything and
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that was a real step function change in how convenient these Services were to use and that was the right insight okay
How to come up with startup ideas
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let's talk about how to come up with startup ideas so it is possible to sit
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down and explicitly think of startup ideas and in a moment I'm going to talk about how to do this but it is actually
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not the best way the best way to have startup ideas is to just notice them organically and if you look at the YC
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top 100 companies at least 70 percent of them have their startup ideas organically rather than by like sitting
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down and explicitly trying to think of a startup idea and the problem is that when people sit down and try to think of
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startup ideas they tend to think of bad ones they're especially likely to think of the same set of tar pit ideas that I
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talked about earlier whereas startup ideas that occur to you organically are more likely to be good ones so if you're
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not planning on starting a company imminently and you just want to put yourself in a position to have organic startup ideas in the future here are
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three ways to do that this is like playing the long game to set yourself up for future success um first is just like become an expert
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on something valuable if you're working at the Forefront of some field you'll see good startup ideas in that field
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and a great way to do that is to go work at a startup Harge talked about this in his talk last week if you're working at
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a startup you will become an expert in the thing that that startup does and that is really putting yourself in a position to have great startup ideas and
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finally if you're a programmer one thing that can work is to just build things that you find interesting even if
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they're not businesses they're not clearly startup ideas sometimes they like turn into them over time and a really
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striking example of this is the story of replica this is exactly how replica started it was just something that amjad
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found interesting it wasn't supposed to be a startup originally okay but if you want to generate ideas for startups
7 recipes for generating startups ideas
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right now I'm going to walk through seven recipes for doing that I've tried to list these in order of How likely
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they are to lead to actually good ideas so start with the first ones okay here's
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the first one and the best one start with what your team is especially
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good at and think of ideas that take advantage of your expertise the reason that this
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is so effective is that any idea you come up with this way has automatic founder market fit do you see how this
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is almost like a hack to generate the set of ideas that has founder market fit here's a great example of like how this
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worked in practice so a good example is this company resi which is like open door for rental
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apartments and before starting resi the founders have worked in real estate and debt financing and they were experts in
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those areas and where they got into YC they spent the first month looking for ideas
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but the smart thing that they did is they only looked at ideas in that idea space in like the rough idea space at
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like the intersection of like real estate and fintech and that was a smart move because that is a very fertile idea
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space for startups like many billion dollar companies have come out of that idea space and the resi founders were
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experts in that idea space and so because of that their search for a startup idea was
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pretty quick and painless and pretty quickly they came up with the idea for Rezi which is like an excellent idea and
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has perfect founder market fit so if you have specific expertise like the resi founders did you should definitely start
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by looking at ideas in you know the things that you're experts in um it is weird how many startups apply
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to YC and we look at their applications and the founders like are actually legitimate experts in something but the
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idea that they're applying with is like something completely different now if you're if you're a young founder
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if you're in college or something you may not have had a chance to develop it's like the level of domain expertise
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that the resi founders had so this may not be the right recipe for you so let's talk about some other ones
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the next recipe is to start with a problem you've personally encountered ideally one that you're in an unusual
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position to see so vetco is a website
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for veterinarians to order supplies so you can think about it like amazon.com for vets
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and the short story of vetcove is that the founders are brothers and their dad is a veterinarian
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and growing up they would notice that the way he ordered supplies was like super old-fashioned like you'd have to
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like call up a supplier on the phone and like order stuff through like a 1-800 number or something it was like very
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obvious that you could build an amazon.com kind of thing that would replace that and I I love the story of vetco because
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it's such a great example of what a great startup opportunity looks like
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because thousands of veterinarians must have known that this was a real problem
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that it was really annoying there wasn't like a basic website where you could just go to order supplies but the thing
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is veterinarians don't start Tech startups very often and then on the other hand you had like thousands of
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programmers in Silicon Valley who were begging their heads against cisps and tarpet ideas totally unaware that over
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here there was like a really great genuine problem to work on
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and because of this when the vet co-founders got started they had no competition so this amazing idea just
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got left on the table for years so if you want to try to actually use recipes one and two here's a specific set of
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instructions for how to do it this is advice I often give to Founders NYC who are pivoting and who are looking for a
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new idea here's how it works for each founder on your team
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go through every job you've ever had plus all your internships plus like
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other life experiences and think really carefully about each of
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them what problems did you come across what did you learn that other people
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don't know What are problems or opportunities that you've been in kind of a special
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position to see those are the best places to start looking for startup ideas okay the next
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one is to just think of things you personally wish existed this is like a really classic recipe this is very
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common advice great example of this is doordash the short story of doordash is that the founders of doordash were
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undergrads at Stanford and the thing they really wanted was to be able to just order food from local restaurants
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and have it delivered to their dorm and before doordash you couldn't do that so they started doordash and this is a
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great recipe but this is the recipe that is most dangerous and potentially leading to tar
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pit ideas so if you're using this recipe you just gotta stop and think for a second is there a reason why this thing
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doesn't exist yet okay the next one is to look for things in the world that have changed recently that might have
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created a new opportunity a great example of this is covet so when the pandemic started it changed
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daily life for all of us and many Founders realize that this created the opportunity for new companies and some
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very successful startups came out of it and one of them is this company called gather town which builds like this fun
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way to hang out with other people online and the founders of gathered town were actually working on a different idea that wasn't going so well and when the
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pandemic started they pivoted to this because it was obvious that like the change in behavior of the pandemic had
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created a bunch of new opportunities you can also look for companies that have been successful recently and look for
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new variants on them a good example of this is a company called Nuvo cargo Nuvo cargo is a good
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example of explicitly sitting down to try to think about startup ideas and actually finding a good one which is the thing that I told you is hard to do
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pneumo cargo is basically flexport for Latin America they help U.S companies to
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import stuff from Mexico and the story of nuva cargo is that Deepak the founder was working on a
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different idea NYC and he realized that his idea wasn't going to work and he went on like a systematic search
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for better ideas and he picked Nuvo cargo for for very
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analytical reasons he picked it because it was a large Market because they were good
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proxies from other companies flexport and he picked it even though he didn't have deep domain expertise in the import
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export space because he had some connections that would enable him to get started and he felt like he would just
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be very good at running this kind of operationally intensive business and that worked really well Niva cargo
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is doing super well you can also go and talk to people and just ask them what
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problems they have this this can work the the downside with this recipe is it actually requires a lot of skill if you
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want to do this I would recommend first picking a fertile idea space and then
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going and talking to people within that idea space and I would also recommend talking not just to potential customers
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but also to potent but also to founders of companies in that idea space to get
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advice about what ideas are actually worth pursuing and a good example of doing this successfully is a to B and A
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to B was in the position that a lot of Founders that struggle to find good startup ideas are in which is that the
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founders were pretty young and they hadn't acquired a lot of specific domain expertise like the resi founders had yet
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but they really wanted to do a startup and they wanted to do a startup that had like a genuinely good idea the way that they came up with the idea for ADB was
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very systematic and so I'm going to walk you through how they did it and really break it down for you so A to B makes
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fuel cards and if you haven't heard of a fuel card it's like a special kind of credit card for truck drivers when the A
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to B Founders got into YC they pivoted and they spent the whole YC batch looking for a new idea and here's how
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they did it first they picked an idea space and the idea space that they picked was essentially software for the
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trucking industry and they picked this idea space despite not being experts at the trucking
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industry because they felt that it just should be a fertile idea space to go
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hunting for startup ideas the trucking industry is as like Big Industry hasn't been that disrupted by startups and
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software yet so they just felt like there were probably some good problems to work on in the trucking industry but
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the problem is they didn't know that much about the trucking industry so they didn't know what those problems were and so they
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decided that they would turn themselves into experts in the trucking industry
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and what they did is they actually physically drove two truck stops which were places where truck drivers are just
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kind of Milling about and they would just walk up to truck drivers and like start
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talking to them and ask them questions about what their problems were they also talked to a lot of Founders
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who had started companies in the trucking space to get ideas for what
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problems were actually worth working on they would basically talk to like anyone who knew anything about Trucking that
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was willing to talk to them and as they did that they began to put together like a mental map of the space and where the
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good ideas were where the bad ideas were and they actually went through a whole bunch of different potential ideas
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before eventually deciding to work on fuel cards and I love the example of a
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to B Because A to B is one of the best new ideas to come out of YC in several years A to B is a phenomenal company and
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the approach that they used to find this idea is something that really anyone could do and most Founders don't do this
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because it just sounds like too much work so if you're willing to put in the work this is an amazing way to find a
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startup idea okay and my last recipe is to just like look for big industries that seem broken
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any Big Industry that seems broken is probably right for disruption and finally I've got kind of a bonus recipe
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which is to just find a co-founder that already has an idea they're actually
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like a lot of people just on Startup School co-founder matching right now that already have an idea and are looking for a co-founder so if you don't
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have a co-founder and you don't have an idea that could be a great hack to getting both at the same time the last
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point that I want to leave you with is just to remember that it's often hard to tell if a startup idea is good or not
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and so while I hope the concepts that I talked about here will help
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typically the only way to know for sure if your startup idea is good is to Just Launch it and find out so if after all
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this you've got a startup idea and you're still kind of on the fence about whether it's actually a good idea or not that is my advice for you just launch it
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and find it