Transcript

at the office for National statistics we

publish statistics about the size and

structure of the population that

organizations use to make important

decisions about local services

like deciding how many school and

Hospital places an area might need or

where to put a new Supermarket to make

these decisions people need the most

up-to-date information about the

changing shape of our population to

estimate the population we start with

Census Data this is collected every 10

years every year we add birds and people

who move into the country or local area

and remove people who have died or who

have moved away we need to make sure

that data about births deaths and

migration from numerous data sources and

systems are received processed and

quality assured

when this is done the statistics are

ready for decision makers to use about a

year later but the accuracy of these

estimates declines as we move away from

the Census year and because our

population is changing more rapidly than

ever decision makers need this

information faster to meet this need

we're exploring new and innovative ways

to create population statistics which is

why we've developed the dynamic

population model or DPM the DPM still

uses information about birds deaths and

internal and international migration but

it also uses new information in

different ways to get the best from

available data

we've built the DPM to produce

statistics that are flexible and

resilient it uses a wide range of data

sources like linked administrative data

which is information that we all share

when we access Public Services like the

tax benefits and Health Systems the DPM

also uses data about births and deaths

students in schools and much more and

because it doesn't rely on a single data

source it can produce high quality

population estimates on time even when a

data source changes

we've also designed it to be accurate

And Timely

the DPM balances the count of the

population alongside local and National

migration this makes sure that our

population estimates are consistent and

accurate and means we can produce

provisional population estimates within

six months of the reference date for

example we were able to produce mid-year

population estimates for 2022 four

months ahead of the planned official

estimates

this also shows how responsive and smart

the DPM can be quickly spotting when

patterns and Trends have changed as it

did with the mid-year population

estimates for 2022 showing how the

population had moved around after the

coronavirus pandemic

to improve our population estimates it

can also tell when data are incomplete

for example it spotted changes in Health

Data we use which meant that we could

decide how best to use them

to make sure that we produce secure high

quality reliable population statistics

independent external experts have

peer-reviewed the methods we use in the

DPM our population estimates also need

to meet a quality standard that is close

to the level delivered in census years

we expect the DPM admin based population

estimates to meet this level of quality

year after year

to find out more about the dynamic

population model visit the ONS website

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