---
name: thesis
display_name: Thesis Pipeline
description: From structured argument to stress-tested investment thesis
stages: 3
estimated_time: 60-120min
venture_stages: [Design, Investment]
problem_types: [well-defined-complex, well-defined-complicated, ill-defined-complex]
hitl_stages:
  - stage: "structure-argument"
    shapes: ["F.9"]
    mode: "ordered"
  - stage: "challenge-assumptions"
    shapes: ["F.8"]
    mode: "ordered"
  - stage: "build-thesis"
    shapes: ["F.9"]
    mode: "ordered"
hitl_why: "Three ordered stages from structured argument to stress-tested thesis: structure-argument then challenge-assumptions then build-thesis, each stage feeding the next."
layer: "graph"
---

# Thesis Pipeline

## When to Use

User has a venture thesis or argument that needs rigorous stress-testing before presenting to stakeholders or investors. Best for later-stage ventures where the idea is clear but the argument needs structural integrity and evidence.

Typical starting points:
- "I need to build my investment thesis"
- "I have an argument but I'm not sure it holds up"
- "I need to present my venture to investors and want it bulletproof"

## Stage Sequence

1. **structure-argument** -- Build the Minto Pyramid, top-down argument structure
2. **challenge-assumptions** -- Devil's Advocate stress-tests every supporting claim
3. **build-thesis** -- Synthesize surviving arguments into a complete investment thesis

## What It Produces

After all 3 stages, the Room will have:
- **problem-definition:** Minto Pyramid artifact with structured argument hierarchy
- **competitive-analysis:** Devil's Advocate artifact with assumption survival map
- **financial-model:** Investment Thesis artifact with thesis pillars, risks, qualifications

## Chain Provenance

Each artifact includes `pipeline: thesis` and `pipeline_stage: N` in frontmatter, creating an inspectable provenance chain. This allows Larry to detect existing pipeline progress and offer resumption.