/**
 * Implementation Noise
 *
 * Models the gap between policy intent and actual outcomes
 * due to corruption, bureaucratic inefficiency, and implementation failures
 *
 * Research Foundation:
 * - Pressman & Wildavsky (1973): Implementation - classic study of policy failure
 * - World Bank WGI Control of Corruption indicator
 * - Kaufmann et al. (2010): Worldwide Governance Indicators
 *
 * Key Findings:
 * - Intent-outcome gap correlates with corruption (WGI Control of Corruption)
 * - Best governments (Singapore): 5% noise
 * - Worst governments (Venezuela, Somalia): 40%+ noise
 * - Noise affects both policy direction and magnitude
 *
 * @module policy/ImplementationNoise
 */
import { Government } from '../core/Government.js';
import { PolicyVector } from './PolicyVector.js';
/**
 * Apply implementation noise to intended policy
 *
 * Corrupts policy outcome based on state capacity
 *
 * @param intendedPolicy - What government intends to do
 * @param government - Government implementing policy
 * @param rng - Random number generator (0-1)
 * @returns Actual policy outcome (with noise applied)
 */
export declare function applyImplementationNoise(intendedPolicy: PolicyVector, government: Government, rng?: () => number): PolicyVector;
/**
 * Calculate implementation success probability
 *
 * Probability that policy is implemented as intended
 * (without significant corruption or failure)
 *
 * @param government - Government implementing policy
 * @param policyComplexity - How complex is the policy (0-1)
 * @returns Success probability (0-1)
 */
export declare function calculateImplementationSuccessProbability(government: Government, policyComplexity?: number): number;
/**
 * Simulate policy implementation outcome
 *
 * Returns whether policy succeeds, partially succeeds, or fails
 *
 * @param government - Government implementing policy
 * @param policyComplexity - Policy complexity (0-1)
 * @param rng - Random number generator
 * @returns Implementation outcome
 */
export declare function simulateImplementationOutcome(government: Government, policyComplexity?: number, rng?: () => number): 'SUCCESS' | 'PARTIAL' | 'FAILURE';
/**
 * Calculate effectiveness multiplier based on implementation outcome
 *
 * @param outcome - Implementation outcome
 * @returns Effectiveness multiplier (0-1)
 */
export declare function getEffectivenessMultiplier(outcome: 'SUCCESS' | 'PARTIAL' | 'FAILURE'): number;
/**
 * Calculate corruption cost
 *
 * Economic cost of corruption as percentage of policy budget
 *
 * Research: Corruption can waste 10-40% of public spending
 * (Transparency International, World Bank)
 *
 * @param government - Government implementing policy
 * @param policyBudget - Policy budget (arbitrary units)
 * @returns Corruption cost (same units as budget)
 */
export declare function calculateCorruptionCost(government: Government, policyBudget: number): number;
/**
 * Calculate bureaucratic delay
 *
 * Additional months added to policy implementation due to bureaucracy
 *
 * @param government - Government implementing policy
 * @param baseImplementationTime - Base time (months)
 * @returns Additional delay (months)
 */
export declare function calculateBureaucraticDelay(government: Government, baseImplementationTime: number): number;