/**
 * Opinion Dynamics
 *
 * Models how public opinion and party support shift over time
 *
 * Research Foundation:
 * - Erikson et al. (2002): The Macro Polity - public opinion dynamics
 * - Powell & Whitten (1993): Economic voting in post-communist states
 * - Lewis-Beck & Stegmaier (2000): Economic determinants of electoral outcomes
 *
 * Key Findings:
 * - Economic performance drives 30-50% of vote swing
 * - Scandals: -5 to -15% support
 * - Policy successes: +3 to +8% support
 * - Crises: Major realignment (-20% to +20% for opposition)
 *
 * @module elections/OpinionDynamics
 */
import { VoteShares } from './VotingSystem.js';
/**
 * Event that affects public opinion
 */
export interface OpinionEvent {
    /** Event type */
    type: OpinionEventType;
    /** Severity (0-1) */
    severity: number;
    /** Which party/coalition is responsible? */
    responsibleParty?: string;
    /** Which policy domain is affected? */
    policyDomain?: string;
}
/**
 * Opinion event types
 */
export declare enum OpinionEventType {
    /** Economic crisis (recession, unemployment) */
    ECONOMIC_CRISIS = "ECONOMIC_CRISIS",
    /** Economic boom (growth, prosperity) */
    ECONOMIC_BOOM = "ECONOMIC_BOOM",
    /** Political scandal */
    SCANDAL = "SCANDAL",
    /** Major policy success */
    POLICY_SUCCESS = "POLICY_SUCCESS",
    /** Major policy failure */
    POLICY_FAILURE = "POLICY_FAILURE",
    /** AI catastrophe or disaster */
    AI_CATASTROPHE = "AI_CATASTROPHE",
    /** Environmental crisis */
    ENVIRONMENTAL_CRISIS = "ENVIRONMENTAL_CRISIS",
    /** International crisis */
    INTERNATIONAL_CRISIS = "INTERNATIONAL_CRISIS",
    /** Social unrest */
    SOCIAL_UNREST = "SOCIAL_UNREST"
}
/**
 * Update vote shares based on opinion event
 *
 * @param currentShares - Current vote/support shares
 * @param event - Opinion event
 * @param incumbentPartyId - Which party is in government
 * @param oppositionPartyIds - Opposition parties
 * @returns Updated vote shares
 */
export declare function updateOpinionFromEvent(currentShares: VoteShares, event: OpinionEvent, incumbentPartyId: string, oppositionPartyIds: string[]): VoteShares;
/**
 * Apply gradual opinion drift (month-to-month random walk)
 *
 * Research: Opinion fluctuates ±1-2% per month randomly
 */
export declare function applyOpinionDrift(currentShares: VoteShares, rng?: () => number): VoteShares;
/**
 * Calculate incumbent approval rating
 *
 * Based on current vote share and recent events
 */
export declare function calculateApprovalRating(incumbentVoteShare: number, recentEvents: OpinionEvent[]): number;