/**
 * Election Cycle
 *
 * Models election timing, triggers, and scheduling
 *
 * Research Foundation:
 * - Schleiter & Morgan-Jones (2009): Citizens, Presidents, and Assemblies
 * - Strøm & Müller (1999): Policy, Office, or Votes?
 * - IPU PARLINE database: Electoral systems worldwide
 *
 * Key Findings:
 * - Parliamentary democracies: 48-60 months (4-5 years)
 * - Presidential democracies: Fixed 48-72 months
 * - Early elections: 15-25% probability in parliamentary systems
 * - Authoritarian regimes: Variable or no elections
 *
 * @module elections/ElectionCycle
 */
import { Government } from '../core/Government.js';
import { Coalition } from '../coalition/Coalition.js';
/**
 * Election state tracking
 */
export interface ElectionState {
    /** Months since last election */
    monthsSinceLastElection: number;
    /** Next scheduled election (month) */
    nextScheduledElection: number;
    /** Is election scheduled for next month? */
    electionScheduled: boolean;
    /** Reason for upcoming election */
    electionReason?: 'REGULAR' | 'EARLY' | 'COALITION_COLLAPSE' | 'NO_CONFIDENCE';
}
/**
 * Initialize election state for government
 */
export declare function initializeElectionState(government: Government, currentMonth?: number): ElectionState;
/**
 * Update election state (call each month)
 *
 * @param state - Current election state
 * @param government - Government
 * @param coalition - Current coalition (if any)
 * @param currentMonth - Current simulation month
 * @param rng - Random number generator
 * @returns Updated election state
 */
export declare function updateElectionState(state: ElectionState, government: Government, coalition: Coalition | null, currentMonth: number, rng?: () => number): ElectionState;
/**
 * Check if government holds elections
 *
 * Some government types don't have elections
 */
export declare function holdsElections(government: Government): boolean;
/**
 * Get months until next election
 */
export declare function getMonthsUntilNextElection(state: ElectionState, currentMonth: number): number;
/**
 * Get election frequency for government type (months)
 */
export declare function getElectionFrequency(government: Government): number;
/**
 * Check if early elections are allowed
 */
export declare function allowsEarlyElections(government: Government): boolean;
/**
 * Calculate vote of confidence probability
 *
 * In parliamentary systems, opposition can force vote of confidence
 * If government loses, early election triggered
 *
 * Research: Occurs 1-2% of months in unstable coalitions
 */
export declare function calculateNoConfidenceProbability(coalition: Coalition, monthsSinceLastElection: number, publicSupport: number): number;