/**
 * Coalition Stability
 *
 * Models coalition stability and breakup probability
 *
 * Research Foundation:
 * - Saalfeld (2008): Intra-party politics and coalition governments
 * - Debus & Bräuninger (2009): Measuring coalition stability
 * - Historical data: Average coalition duration varies by country (2-5 years typical)
 *
 * Stability Factors:
 * 1. Policy distance (cohesion)
 * 2. Seat margin (buffer against defections)
 * 3. External pressure (crises, scandals)
 * 4. Time in power (honeymoon period vs fatigue)
 *
 * @module coalition/CoalitionStability
 */
import { Coalition } from './Coalition.js';
/**
 * Stability metrics for a coalition
 */
export interface StabilityMetrics {
    /** Policy cohesion score (0-1, higher = more cohesive) */
    policyCohesion: number;
    /** Seat margin score (0-1, higher = more seats beyond threshold) */
    seatMargin: number;
    /** External pressure score (0-1, higher = more pressure) */
    externalPressure: number;
    /** Time-in-power score (0-1, accounts for honeymoon and fatigue) */
    timeInPower: number;
    /** Overall stability score (0-1, higher = more stable) */
    overallStability: number;
    /** Monthly breakup probability (0-1) */
    monthlyBreakupProbability: number;
}
/**
 * External events that can destabilize coalitions
 */
export interface ExternalPressure {
    /** Economic crisis severity (0-1) */
    economicCrisis?: number;
    /** Scandal severity (0-1) */
    scandal?: number;
    /** Policy failure severity (0-1) */
    policyFailure?: number;
    /** International crisis severity (0-1) */
    internationalCrisis?: number;
    /** Public opinion drop (0-1) */
    opinionDrop?: number;
}
/**
 * Calculate coalition stability metrics
 *
 * @param coalition - Coalition to analyze
 * @param monthsInPower - How long coalition has been in government
 * @param externalPressure - External destabilizing factors
 * @returns Stability metrics
 */
export declare function calculateStability(coalition: Coalition, monthsInPower: number, externalPressure?: ExternalPressure): StabilityMetrics;
/**
 * Check if coalition should break up this month
 *
 * @param coalition - Coalition to check
 * @param monthsInPower - How long coalition has been in government
 * @param externalPressure - External destabilizing factors
 * @param rng - Random number generator (0-1)
 * @returns True if coalition breaks up
 */
export declare function shouldCoalitionBreakup(coalition: Coalition, monthsInPower: number, externalPressure?: ExternalPressure, rng?: () => number): boolean;
/**
 * Predict coalition duration (expected months)
 *
 * Based on stability metrics and historical data
 */
export declare function predictCoalitionDuration(coalition: Coalition, externalPressure?: ExternalPressure): number;
/**
 * Get coalition health status
 */
export declare function getCoalitionHealth(stability: StabilityMetrics): string;