import { type AgentGenome, type GenomeMutation } from './genome';
export type VariantStatus = 'active' | 'archived' | 'promoted';
export type AgentVariant = {
    id: string;
    parentId: string | null;
    agentId: string;
    taskType: string;
    genomeHash: string;
    genome: AgentGenome;
    status: VariantStatus;
    sampleCount: number;
    repScore: number;
    notes: string | null;
    createdAt: number;
    promotedAt: number | null;
    archivedAt: number | null;
};
export type CreateVariantInput = {
    agentId: string;
    taskType: string;
    genome: AgentGenome;
    parentId?: string | null;
    notes?: string | null;
};
export type CreateVariantResult = {
    variant: AgentVariant;
    created: boolean;
};
export declare function createVariant(input: CreateVariantInput): CreateVariantResult;
export declare function forkVariant(parentId: string, patch: GenomeMutation, notes?: string): AgentVariant;
export declare function getVariant(id: string): AgentVariant | null;
export declare function listActiveVariants(taskType: string, agentId?: string): AgentVariant[];
export type LeaderboardEntry = {
    variantId: string;
    agentId: string;
    status: VariantStatus;
    genomeHash: string;
    sampleCount: number;
    mean: number;
    ci95: [number, number];
    createdAt: number;
    promotedAt: number | null;
    notes: string | null;
};
export declare function getLeaderboard(taskType: string, limit?: number): LeaderboardEntry[];
export declare function getVariantScores(variantId: string): number[];
export declare function thompsonSample(variants: AgentVariant[]): AgentVariant | null;
export type PromotionResult = {
    promoted: false;
    reason: string;
} | {
    promoted: true;
    variantId: string;
    previousDefaultId: string | null;
    pValue: number;
    uplift: number;
    sampleCount: number;
    eventId: string;
};
export declare function evaluateAndPromote(taskType: string, options?: {
    minSamples?: number;
    pThreshold?: number;
    receiptId?: string | null;
}): PromotionResult;
export type RecordEntryResult = {
    ok: true;
    totalCost: number;
} | {
    ok: false;
    error: string;
};
export declare function recordTournamentEntry(params: {
    tournamentId: string;
    variantId: string;
    performanceEventId?: string | null;
    qualityScore?: number | null;
    cost?: number | null;
    latencyMs?: number | null;
    outcome?: string | null;
}): RecordEntryResult;
export type RecordScoreInput = {
    variantId: string;
    qualityScore: number;
    cost?: number;
    latencyMs?: number;
};
export declare function recordScore(input: RecordScoreInput): RecordEntryResult;