import { type AgentVariant } from './service';
export type CanaryStatus = 'active' | 'promoted' | 'rolled_back';
export type CanaryRollout = {
    id: string;
    taskType: string;
    canaryVariantId: string;
    baselineVariantId: string;
    trafficPct: number;
    status: CanaryStatus;
    minSamples: number;
    rollbackThreshold: number;
    startedAt: number;
    decidedAt: number | null;
    decision: string | null;
    decisionEventId: string | null;
};
export type StartCanaryInput = {
    taskType: string;
    canaryVariantId: string;
    baselineVariantId?: string;
    trafficPct?: number;
    minSamples?: number;
    rollbackThreshold?: number;
};
export declare function startCanary(input: StartCanaryInput): CanaryRollout;
export declare function getActiveCanary(taskType: string): CanaryRollout | null;
export declare function listCanaryRollouts(taskType: string, limit?: number): CanaryRollout[];
export type CanaryPick = {
    variant: AgentVariant;
    rolloutId: string;
    arm: 'canary' | 'baseline';
};
export declare function pickCanaryArm(taskType: string, rng?: () => number): CanaryPick | null;
export type CanaryDecision = {
    kind: 'hold';
    reason: string;
    canarySamples: number;
    baselineSamples: number;
} | {
    kind: 'promote';
    meanCanary: number;
    meanBaseline: number;
    uplift: number;
    pValue: number;
    canarySamples: number;
} | {
    kind: 'rollback';
    reason: 'regression' | 'pvalue';
    meanCanary: number;
    meanBaseline: number;
    delta: number;
    canarySamples: number;
};
export type EvaluateCanaryOptions = {
    taskType: string;
    pThreshold?: number;
    windowStart?: number;
};
export declare function evaluateCanary(opts: EvaluateCanaryOptions): CanaryDecision;
export declare function rampCanary(taskType: string, newTrafficPct: number): CanaryRollout;
export declare function promoteCanary(taskType: string): {
    rolloutId: string;
    promotedVariantId: string;
    archivedVariantId: string;
    eventId: string;
};
export declare function rollbackCanary(taskType: string, reason?: string): {
    rolloutId: string;
    archivedVariantId: string;
    eventId: string;
};
export type CanaryStepResult = {
    action: 'held';
    decision: Extract<CanaryDecision, {
        kind: 'hold';
    }>;
} | {
    action: 'ramped';
    from: number;
    to: number;
    decision: CanaryDecision;
} | {
    action: 'promoted';
    rolloutId: string;
    promotedVariantId: string;
    archivedVariantId: string;
    eventId: string;
    decision: Extract<CanaryDecision, {
        kind: 'promote';
    }>;
} | {
    action: 'rolled_back';
    rolloutId: string;
    archivedVariantId: string;
    eventId: string;
    decision: Extract<CanaryDecision, {
        kind: 'rollback';
    }>;
};
export type StepCanaryOptions = {
    taskType: string;
    rampSteps?: number[];
    pThreshold?: number;
};
export declare function stepCanary(opts: StepCanaryOptions): CanaryStepResult;