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description: Capacity Modeling
alwaysApply: false
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# Capacity Modeling

Guidelines for measuring and planning resource capacity across operational environments.

## Capacity Dimensions

- **Personnel**: Headcount by role, available hours (minus leave/training), effective hours (adjusted for fatigue/handoffs), skill mix
- **Equipment**: Unit count by type, operational availability (minus maintenance), throughput rate, consumable levels
- **Space**: Beds/bays/stations, surge expansion areas, staging, isolation capacity
- **System**: Communication bandwidth, IT throughput, transportation network, supply chain replenishment

## Utilization Targets

| Zone | Range | Action |
|------|-------|--------|
| Under-utilized | < 50% | Consolidate or redeploy |
| Optimal | 50-80% | Maintain with minor tuning |
| High | 80-90% | Pre-stage reserves, monitor closely |
| Stressed | 90-95% | Activate overflow, defer non-critical |
| Saturated | > 95% | Escalate, implement triage |

Optimal zone varies by context: emergency departments 70-85%, elective suites 85-90%.

## Capacity Assessment Process

1. **Inventory**: Count all resources by type, location, status
2. **Availability**: Subtract planned downtime (maintenance, leave, training)
3. **Effective capacity**: Apply efficiency factors (handoffs, setup, fatigue)
4. **Match to demand**: Compare against forecast
5. **Gap analysis**: Identify shortfalls by type, time, and location
6. **Mitigation**: Define response for each gap (overtime, mutual aid, deferral)

## Bottleneck Identification

- **Throughput analysis**: Lowest flow rate stage is the bottleneck
- **Queue monitoring**: Growing queues indicate constrained resources
- **Utilization heat maps**: Persistent hot spots are structural bottlenecks
- **Shadow price analysis**: Highest shadow price in optimizer = most impactful constraint

| Duration | Response |
|----------|----------|
| Temporary (< 4h) | Redistribute load, activate float pool |
| Recurring (daily) | Adjust staffing pattern, stagger schedules |
| Persistent (multi-day) | Acquire resources, redesign workflow |

## Scenario Planning

Model at least three scenarios:

| Scenario | Assumption | Purpose |
|----------|-----------|---------|
| Base case | Median forecast | Normal operating plan |
| High demand | 90th percentile | Validate surge capacity |
| Crisis | Historical worst case | Validate protocols and mutual aid |

## Common Pitfalls

- **Confusing theoretical and effective capacity**: Effective capacity accounts for turnover, cleaning, staffing ratios — always less than theoretical
- **Ignoring interdependencies**: A ventilator without a therapist is useless — model resource bundles, not individual items
- **Static plans**: Review capacity monthly; adjust for seasonal shifts and staffing changes