/**
 * Counterfactual evaluation.
 *
 * Estimates whether another candidate may have performed better using
 * evaluation scenarios, replays, or comparable historical runs. Results are
 * clearly labeled as estimates, carry explicit uncertainty, identify the
 * off-policy estimator, and never retroactively change completed-run authority.
 */
import type { CandidateEvidence } from "./types.js";
export type CounterfactualMode = "direct_paired" | "replay_compatible" | "matched_historical" | "unsupported";
export interface CounterfactualEstimate {
    decisionId: string;
    productionCandidateId?: string;
    counterfactualCandidateId?: string;
    mode: CounterfactualMode;
    estimator: "direct" | "doubly_robust" | "importance_sampling" | "none";
    estimatedWouldHaveImproved: boolean;
    effectSize: number;
    uncertainty: number;
    supported: boolean;
    reasonCodes: string[];
}
export interface CounterfactualInput {
    decisionId: string;
    productionCandidateId?: string;
    counterfactualCandidateId?: string;
    productionEvidence?: CandidateEvidence;
    counterfactualEvidence?: CandidateEvidence;
    /** Environment/task compatibility flags. */
    compatible: {
        task: boolean;
        environment: boolean;
        scenario: boolean;
        identity: boolean;
    };
}
/**
 * Produce a counterfactual estimate. Only produces a supported numeric estimate
 * when evidence for both candidates exists and identities are compatible.
 * Otherwise it reports an explicit "unsupported" mode with no causal claim.
 */
export declare function evaluateCounterfactual(input: CounterfactualInput): CounterfactualEstimate;
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