Bayesian Regression Models with RStanARM

Open Science Collaboration (2015) tries to replicate 100 studies published in 3 psychology different journals in 2008.

• Boil a study down to 1 test statistic and 1 effect size.
  • Compare replication's test and effect size against original.
• Approximately 36% of the studies are replicated (same test statistic.
• On average, effect sizes in replications are half that of the original studies.

We're doomed.

Most findings are probably false.

No, this is business as usual.